Editor’s note:Let me be clear on this point: I don’t hate rules — we need them, or we’ll have no fish for the future. Good and accurate scientific data should drive whatever regulations are necessary to keep fish stocks healthy. But if the science is bad, so are the regulations based on it.

Here we go again. It seems like every time you turn around, some fish stock or other is in trouble. This time, it’s gag — the most frequently caught species of grouper along the Southwest Florida coast. The solution put forth: Starting Jan. 1, gag are off-limits in federal waters, which start 9 nautical miles offshore in Florida. The moratorium is an interim rule, which is basically an emergency regulation in effect for 180 days.

This is a bad thing for many of our local charter captains, who are already under duress from the continuing economic doldrums and the negative impact of nonstop oil-is-covering-the-entire-Gulf TV news coverage this summer. It’s also a bad thing for bait shops, boat sales outlets, and any other business that caters to offshore anglers in our area. And the worst thing about it is, the problem the emergency closure is supposed to solve may not really exist in the first place.

Before we start, decisions on federal fisheries policies in the Gulf are made by the National Marine Fisheries Service, which is advised by the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council, one of eight regional fishery management councils established by the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation Management Act. NMFS is a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Got that? Good.

To understand a little bit about how we got here, it helps to remember that the Gulf Council and its parent organizations are slow-as-January-molasses bureaucracies that base their decisions on some strange science (or, as some would put it, “fatally flawed science.”) According to the most recent stock assessment by the Gulf Council, gag are overfished and undergoing overfishing. These are two separate things — “overfished” means too many have been removed from the population; “undergoing overfishing” means someone is currently taking more than the stock will support. When a given fish stock exhibits both conditions, NMFS is required to correct the problem. This is generally done by restricting or banning harvest until a detailed study can determine the proper steps to replenish the population. As long as the data is valid, so far, so good — letting a fish stock collapse would be stupid.

The question then becomes this: How do you know when overfishing is going on in the first place? Counting how many fish end up on ice is no simple task. Fish are not bar-coded — no one scans each one out of inventory when it’s caught so fisheries managers know how many to fetch from the stockroom and put on the shelves. Instead, the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistical Survey — a combination of telephone surveys and dockside interviews — is used to determine how many people fished for a given species within a given time and how many fish they kept or released. One of the problems here is that a small data sample is extrapolated to the entire public. Another is that this doesn’t count how many fish there are — it just estimates the number caught.

This methodology has produced some questionable numbers in the past — such as the dubious all-time high landings of red grouper during the 2004 hurricane season — yet it continues to be the way very important data is compiled. According to Steve Atran, a fisheries biologist with the Gulf management council, in 2008 the number of gag caught and kept by recreational Gulf anglers in Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana was 428,619. He admits the number is suspiciously precise, but that’s what the computer spit out, so that’s the official catch.

According to Dennis O’Hern, executive director of the Fishing Rights Alliance, the telephone survey results showed little drop in fishing effort from 2006 — a peak year — to 2009, a year in which we were mired in the depths of our economic recession. The government’s response: When people are out of work, they must be going fishing more often, despite the costs associated with fishing in the Gulf. Forget the possibility that MRFSS was wrong. In 2005, the Alliance successfully sued NMFS over an interim rule that attempted to shut down all grouper fishing to protect red grouper — the first time such a suit had been successful. The Alliance is planning to file a lawsuit over the interim gag rule as soon as it goes into effect.

O’Hern isn’t the only one looking askance at MRFSS numbers. Earlier this year, U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) called on U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco and National Marine Fisheries Service Administrator Patricia Kurkul to issue an immediate moratorium on flawed survey data used to implement recreational fishing quotas. In a letter addressed to Kurkul, Sen. Schumer cited MRFSS data as being “fatally flawed.”

“We need better science and more data-based flexibility in our fishing management regulations,” wrote Schumer. “Keeping our fishing stocks healthy is absolutely critical, and to accomplish this we can’t base decisions on outdated science and poor methods.” Schumer added that the angling community “needs fairness and relief from flawed survey data now.”

Congress convened a special hearing in 2005 to look the MRFSS methodology, which in turn led to an in-depth analysis by the National Research Council concluding that “both the telephone and access components of the current approach have serious flaws in design or implementation and use inadequate analysis methods that need to be addressed immediately.”

This led to a mandate requiring NMFS develop a replacement for the current survey system, set to be in place by 2009. The new system, called the Marine Recreational Information Program, is coming online but is not yet operational. That means MRFSS data is still the “best available science” to determine recreational harvest. The development of the new program, by the way, was the impetus for requiring shore anglers to have a license — the feds want to have data on everyone who fishes, so they can contact known anglers for interviews rather than random individuals. Due in part to the delays in implementation of the MRIP, the Fishing Rights Alliance has filed a trio of lawsuits currently before a federal judge, and a decision is expected in November.

So MRFSS data is already suspect. Add in the guesstimate of how many released gag end up dead, and it becomes even more apparent that these numbers are difficult to swallow. According to information provided by Atran, the number of fish caught and released in those four states in 2008 was 4,193,000. Atran says that mortality varies depending on depth — deeper water equals higher mortality — but the overall figure is “about 20 percent.” Simple math shows us that, according to the official numbers being used, about 840,000 released gag died — nearly twice as many as were intentionally harvested. So for every fish brought home to fillet, two more end up feeding the crabs.

Since June 1, 2008, anglers taking or attempting to take reef fish have been required to use circle hooks and venting tools. Circle hooks are designed to hook fish in the mouth, not the gut, and venting tools relieve the pressure imbalance that causes a fish’s swim bladder to expand when it’s brought up from deep water. Use of these devices is imperative, said the scientists, because it will greatly improve the survival of released fish. Sounds good — everyone wants released fish to survive. But the official release mortality rate of gag is the same as it was before the requirement went into effect. Also, in 2009, the closed season on gag went from one month to two and the bag limit dropped from five fish to two fish. How is it that these restrictions have failed to put any sort of damper on gag harvest?

Atran can explain. “I haven’t seen any follow-up study done to try to determine the impact of those regulations. It may be too soon to see the change,” he said. “I believe we’re crediting about an 8 percent reduction on the total removals for the closed season.”

So, despite the fact that no one knows how well the new regulations are working, the plan is to shut the fishery down completely while the data is reviewed.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, which sets regulations in state waters, is not planning to follow the Gulf Council’s lead — not yet, anyway. FWC spokesman Lee Schlesinger says, “We’re not going to take any action on interim rules. Our policy is to wait for the development of a codified rule and then make a decision (whether to mirror the federal regulation).”

But a more permanent rule might not be long in coming. And when it gets here, it could be even more restrictive than the interim rule.

The problem is the release mortality figure. According to an FWC report on gag dated July 26, recreational release mortality may exceed the total allowable catch for the species. That means that even if no harvest of gag were allowed at all, anglers would be killing more fish than the stock can support. How do you fix that? The report goes on to say that “extending management measures (e.g., season closures) to red and black grouper should reduce bycatch of gag.” So the solution to overfishing of gag may be longer closed seasons on other grouper species.

At their February 2011 meeting, the Gulf Council is set to review the gag stock reassessment which is currently under way. It’s possible gag could be reopened at least partially April 1 — or shut down for even longer. In the meantime, charter captains will bear the brunt of the economic impact. For the past couple years, they’ve already felt the effects of having a closed grouper season during the height of the tourist season. An additional month of no gag harvest will just add that much more pain. If you’re on your own boat, you’ll still be able to take a couple of gag home in January if you fish in state waters. But that’s not an option for charter vessels. According to Amendment 30B of the Gulf Council’s Reef Fish Fishery Management Plan, all vessels with federal commercial or charter reef fish permits must comply with the more restrictive of state or federal reef fish regulations when fishing in state waters.

The rat’s nest of fishing regulations is already a huge, snarled mess. It’s tough enough for recreational anglers to keep on top of things, but staying current all the state and federal regulations for every species and acquiring the licenses and permits required keeps charter captains on their toes. As the restrictions tighten, charter fishing becomes a less viable way to make a living. It almost seems like that’s just what fisheries managers want. After all, fewer people fishing would make their jobs much easier.

It’s appropriate to finish with a charter captain, Capt. Joe Miller of Fish Galore Offshore out of Osprey, Fla., talking about the effects the gag closure will have on his business next year.

“It’s not gonna do it any good, that’s for sure,” he says. “I do what I can to ensure the survival of the fish we release. I don’t understand how or why they make the rules they do. They don’t seem too concerned with folks trying to make a living.”